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2.3.2. stage b: scenario analysis
Identifying alternatives and choosing preferred alternatives
At this stage of the research, the Scenario Analysis was introduced and per-
formed for each Pilot Area in order to compare different forecasts depending on
different sets and amounts of RES that could likely be introduced, and to select,
case-by-case, the most suitable scenario(s) in order to implement the Action
Plan. As a matter of fact, whereas the Scenario Analysis proved frail and scenar-
ios were definitely rough on a large scale and over a large time span, it proved
fruitful in order to explore consequences of decisions under uncertainty in local
areas in the short and medium term (10-15 years). Nevertheless, it has to be
underlined that usually the alternatives considered at this stage of plan-making
are still strategic.
Thus, each partner developed five scenarios under the same initial conditions
and underlying objectives:
1. some limits or thresholds for RES, as part of the commitments made at the
European level and embedded in local energy plans, if available;
2. some general requirements for the reuse of brownfield, quarries and aban-
doned areas, for building-integrated PV plants, and/or against land consump-
tion and/or fragmentation in land use, etc.;
3. specific Landscape Quality Objectives (LQOs) related to “Character” and
“Sensitivity” of the territories. As seen above, these objectives are to be con-
sidered “non-negotiable” (Planning to Avoid) regardless of any scenarios.
Conversely, the areas with a lower landscape sensitivity could welcome a great-
er number of RES plants, without a too relevant landscape compromising.
Each scenario could be seen as a reduction factor more or less significant to-
wards the planned production of energy from renewable sources, in order to
Fig.4
Tuscia
romana,
Lazio region,
chosen
scenario for
pV plants.
